Towards learned emulation of interannual water isotopologue variations in General Circulation Models

Abstract

Abstract Simulating abundances of stable water isotopologues, that is, molecules differing in their isotopic composition, within climate models allows for comparisons with proxy data and, thus, for testing hypotheses about past climate and validating climate models under varying climatic conditions. However, many models are run without explicitly simulating water isotopologues. We investigate the possibility of replacing the explicit physics-based simulation of oxygen isotopic composition in precipitation using machine learning methods. These methods estimate isotopic composition at each time step for given fields of surface temperature and precipitation amount. We implement convolutional neural networks (CNNs) based on the successful UNet architecture and test whether a spherical network architecture outperforms the naive approach of treating Earth’s latitude-longitude grid as a flat image. Conducting a case study on a last millennium run with the iHadCM3 climate model, we find that roughly 40% of the temporal variance in the isotopic composition is explained by the emulations on interannual and monthly timescale, with spatially varying emulation quality. The tested CNNs outperform simple baseline models such as random forest and pixel-wise linear regression substantially. A modified version of the standard UNet architecture for flat images yields results that are as good as the predictions by the spherical CNN. Variations in the implementation of isotopes between climate models likely contribute to an observed deterioration of emulation results when testing on data obtained from different climate models than the one used for training. Future work toward stable water-isotope emulation might focus on achieving robust climate–oxygen isotope relationships or exploring the set of possible predictor variables.