Towards carbon neutrality in China: A systematic identification of China's sustainable land-use pathways across multiple scales

Abstract

Sustainable land use is crucial for achieving Carbon Neutrality goals, which requires a scientific identification of optimized pathways for land use patterns across multiple scales. Yet, current land use studies predominantly focus on single scales but lack system thinking and fail to establish complementary cross-regional carbon neutrality collaboration schemes. Applying life-cycle thinking to analyze land use sustainability and carbon neutrality potential at multiple scales could address this challenge. This study aims to present China's first multi-scale spatiotemporal optimization pathway for sustainable land use to improve carbon neutrality potential. It systematically integrates the complex spatial coupling relationships between land use intensity and efficiency. We integrate multi-scale sustainable land use pathways, spanning grid, basin, and administrative levels, and unveil significant variations in land use sustainability and carbon neutrality potential across China. Sixty-three percent of China's land is in low sustainability, and the overall carbon neutrality potential in China is relatively low, with regions accounting for <30 % facing more carbon neutrality missions. Implementing sequential and partitioned governance modes can effectively support China in achieving sustainable land use and advancing Carbon Neutrality goals. Our sustainable land use pathways for China provide valuable insights for systematically undertaking carbon neutrality actions across different scales.