Towards a Model of Urban Evolution—Part III: Rules of Evolution

Abstract

This paper develops a formal model of urban evolution in terms of (1) sources of variations; (2) principles of selection; and (3) mechanisms of retention. More specifically, regarding (1) it defines local and environmental sources of variation and identifies some of their generative processes, such as recombination, migration, mutation, extinction, and transcription errors. Regarding (2), it outlines a series of selection processes as part of an evolutionary ecology of urban forms, including density dependence, scope dependence, distance dependence, content dependence, and frequency dependence. Regarding (3), it characterizes retention as a combination of absorption and restriction of novel variants, defines mechanisms by which these can occur, including longevity, fidelity, and fecundity, and specifies how these processes issue in trajectories define by properties such as stability, pace, convergence, and divergence. A conclusion reviews the effort and looks forward to computer simulation and data-driven applications, as well as focused theoretical extensions of parts of the model. This paper builds on Parts I and II and is part of the Urban Genome Project, about which more information can be found here.