Toward understanding 1.5°C global warming influences on temperature and precipitation extremes at different timings: before and after overshooting

Abstract

To better understand the long-term influences of the 1.5°C target, we provide an assessment of the changes in climate extremes under same warming level but at different timings, based on the magnitude of change, the internal variability, and the model agreement derived from CMIP5. Our findings imply that the changes in climate extremes and their impacts under 1.5°C warming level are projected to be more modest at the stage after overshoot. Specifically, less shares of land area will experience robust increase in extreme hot event and warm spell duration. Potential less cold events after overshooting are also projected. The land areas and population directly experiencing increase in heavy precipitation intensity are projected to slightly increase, whereas more land areas will benefit from the robust decrease in dry spell length. Nevertheless, most of climate extremes analysed in our study will change beyond the upper limit of present-day natural variability.