Changes in climate extremes over Bangladesh at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming with high-resolution regional climate modeling

Abstract

Global mean temperature is continuously rising and causing changes in the extreme climatic events. Following these changes, climate extremes—the rare events that reside in the tail of the distribution of essential climate variables—are expected to be further intensified, more frequent, and prolonged. Changes in extremes would vary spatially from region to region and thus need regional assessment for future adaptation planning. This study assesses the climate extremes at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 4 °C of global warming over Bangladesh which is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Future changes in climate extremes are assessed using a subset of extreme temperature and precipitation indices devised by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Projections from high-resolution regional climate model ensembles are used to derive extreme climate indices. Our analysis shows overall upward changes in warm indices and downward changes in cold indices at higher specific warming levels. We found a much higher increase in extreme rainfall compared with the annual total rainfall. Increasing variability of rainfall indices is found at higher specific warming levels. Our analysis also suggests a higher increase of temperature during the winter and post-monsoon seasons, as well as an increase in the 1-day and 5-day maximum rainfall during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. A significant regional difference is found in almost all the rainfall indices. The forecasted increase of extreme rainfall and consecutive dry days (CDD) over the northeast region indicates a possibility of an increase of flash floods in the future. Moreover, the increase in the extreme rainfall over the southeast region will increase the chances of landslides.