Toward the reliable use of reanalysis data as a reference for bias correction in climate models: A multivariate perspective

Abstract

General circulation models are vital tools in climate change research, profoundly influencing numerous hydroclimatological studies, but often exhibit systematic biases due to limitations in parameterization. To correct these biases, bias correction (BC) methods, which are heavily dependent on the quality of historical reference data, are employed. Ideally, accurate data comes from a dense network of gauges, but due to their limited availability, reanalysis data is frequently used instead. Although reanalysis data provides consistent global and temporal coverage, its assimilated nature can introduce additional biases, potentially increasing error propagation particularly in the multivariate perspective. Thus, this study investigates the reliability of reanalysis data as a reference for multivariate bias correction (MBC) and utilizes a two-stage bias correction approach that integrates both gauge and reanalysis data to leverage their respective strengths. Conducting a case study in South Korea, we utilized gauge data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and outputs from 10 CMIP6 General Circulation Models. We implemented three-nested experiments to test the robustness of this two-stage approach across various dimensions. Results show that using reanalysis data as a reference can lead to bias propagation, especially misrepresenting precipitation and wind dependencies in high elevation areas. However, the two-stage approach has shown an enhancement in mitigating these limitations, even when gauge data is temporally sparse, and across different combinations of MBC methods. Finally, we highlight the current limitations and potential for future research to focus on effectively combining gauge and reanalysis data to compensate for each other’s weaknesses, thereby enhancing the accuracy and reliability in future climate realizations.