Toward compatibility with national dairy production and climate goals through locally appropriate mitigation interventions in Kenya

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CONTEXTLivestock are an important component of livelihoods in smallholder dairy systems in Africa, but are characterized by low animal productivity and large environmental impacts per unit of animal product (e.g. greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) intensities). Governments in African countries have set ambitious targets for dairy systems, but development of climate-smart strategies has been hindered by a scarcity of baseline data and local intervention trials. OBJECTIVEWe use a rich dataset from smallholder mixed dairy systems in Kenya to determine whether national climate and development goals for 2030 can be met using locally appropriate interventions. Interventions considered included improved herd management and feed interventions. METHODSWe conducted a yield gap analysis to determine the scope of the existing milk yield gaps, then evaluated the extent to which yield gaps could be closed using interventions in a second step. We outscaled our results to the national level to determine the potential impact of adopting our interventions on national dairy production and GHG emission goals using the FAO Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model – interactive (GLEAM-i) tool. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOur analysis showed that substantial yield gaps exist in Kenyan dairy systems (39 to 49% of attainable yields). These gaps could be closed by intervention packages but not by individual interventions alone. Our outscaled scenarios showed interventions can reduce milk GHG emission intensities (−6.5 to −27.4%), while absolute emissions would increase in most scenarios (−3.9 to +25.9%). To meet national milk production goals, we estimated that a large increase in animal numbers is needed by 2030 compared to 2010 (from ∼2.7 M to 4.5–7.1 M heads of cattle). However, most scenarios fell short of the emissions target (−4% to +48%) by 2030. It may be possible to narrowly meet Kenyan national milk production and GHG emission goals by 2030. SIGNIFICANCENational goals for milk production and reducing GHG emissions were only marginally compatible in Kenya. Other sectors of the economy will need to reduce emissions to ensure that food and nutrition security objectives are not jeopardized. In order to achieve national milk goals, there will be need to be a consummate increase in animal numbers even with the adoption of multiple interventions. To meet Kenya's national emissions goals, widespread adoption of several locally appropriate interventions will be required. International support will be needed to meet Kenya's conditional Nationally Determined Contributions under the 2015 Paris Agreement, as well as food and nutrition security goals.