Toward a standardized framework for thermal resilience modelling and its practical application to futureproofing

Abstract

Recent extreme weather events and expert forecasts of a sharp increase in the frequency and severity of future extreme weather events due to climate change have signaled the need to futureproof our buildings and make them more resilient. Thermal resilience is among the many aspects of overall building resilience that has the co-benefit of reducing energy demands and carbon emissions. Thermal resilience of buildings is commonly assessed using two indicators: thermal autonomy (TA) and passive habitability (PH). An emerging body of research has identified these two indicators as being significantly correlated to energy efficient building performance. However, there remains a need to achieve consensus about how to coherently and consistently model TA and PH during the early stages of design to better inform decision making. This paper proposes a framework to establish a common set of building energy modeling conventions, comfort and habitability thresholds, and selection criteria for weather data to promote useful TA and PH indicators. It concludes by proposing practical applications of thermal resilience modeling to help address climate change adaptation and futureproofing in codes and standards.