Abstract
The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief), belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy). Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience (UnExp) subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures [RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs (TPB) and new age philosophy]. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with UnExp and belief in the paranormal (particularly the TPB dimension of the RPBS). Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to UnExp. Structural equation modeling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between UnExp and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst UnExp correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness), there was no association between UnExp and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction).
Highlights
Heuristics are simple mental rules or shortcuts, which ease cognitive load and facilitate rapid formation of judgments and decisions (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974)
Unusual Experience (UnExp) possessed the strongest correlations with paranormal beliefs
Context influenced the relationship between UnExp and statistical bias
Summary
Heuristics are simple mental rules or shortcuts, which ease cognitive load and facilitate rapid formation of judgments and decisions (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). While heuristics typical yield reasonable judgments, they can produce systematic deviations from logic and probability (Costello and Mathison, 2014). Recent research indicates that belief in the paranormal is associated with susceptibility to heuristic bias, misrepresentation of chance (Dagnall et al, 2007, 2014, 2016) and conjunction fallacy (Rogers et al, 2009, 2011, 2016). The present paper examined the degree to which level of schizotypy influenced this relationship. This was a logical extension to previous research because schizotypy correlates with belief in the paranormal and is associated with proneness to reasoning and cognitive bias. Jumping to conclusions (Moritz and Woodward, 2005; Sellen et al, 2005) and tendency to discount disconfirmatory evidence (Buchy et al, 2007)
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