Abstract
This study assessed the extent to which within-individual variation in schizotypy and paranormal belief influenced performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks. A convenience sample of 725 non-clinical adults completed measures assessing schizotypy (Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experiences; O-Life brief), belief in the paranormal (Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and probabilistic reasoning (perception of randomness, conjunction fallacy, paranormal perception of randomness, and paranormal conjunction fallacy). Latent profile analysis (LPA) identified four distinct groups: class 1, low schizotypy and low paranormal belief (43.9% of sample); class 2, moderate schizotypy and moderate paranormal belief (18.2%); class 3, moderate schizotypy (high cognitive disorganization) and low paranormal belief (29%); and class 4, moderate schizotypy and high paranormal belief (8.9%). Identification of homogeneous classes provided a nuanced understanding of the relative contribution of schizotypy and paranormal belief to differences in probabilistic reasoning performance. Multivariate analysis of covariance revealed that groups with lower levels of paranormal belief (classes 1 and 3) performed significantly better on perception of randomness, but not conjunction problems. Schizotypy had only a negligible effect on performance. Further analysis indicated that framing perception of randomness and conjunction problems in a paranormal context facilitated performance for all groups but class 4.
Highlights
Previous research has established that schizotypy and belief in the paranormal predict propensity to heuristic bias
The emergence of low, moderate, and to an extent high schizotypy profiles is consistent with previous within-variable analyses (Loughland and Williams, 1997; Hori et al, 2014)
Research evidencing a moderate correlation between schizotypy and paranormal belief supports this proposal (Dagnall et al, 2010; Darwin et al, 2011)
Summary
Previous research has established that schizotypy and belief in the paranormal predict propensity to heuristic bias (see Dagnall et al, 2016b). Heuristics are simple shortcuts, or mental rules of thumb, that guide subjective estimation of event probability in situations of uncertainty (Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011). People use heuristics when likelihoods are unknown and/or information is complex or incomplete (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, 1993). Such features are often evident in real-world situations, heuristics regularly guide everyday decision-making (Gigerenzer and Gaissmaier, 2011). Since heuristics consider only limited evidence, they reduce cognitive load and facilitate rapid formation of judgments (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974; Shah and Oppenheimer, 2008).
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