Total Factor Productivity Growth in U.S. Commercial Banking for 1935–1991: A Latent Variable Approach Using the Kalman Filter

Abstract

This paper studies total factor productivity (TFP) in U.S. commercial banking for 1935–1991. TFP can contain a procyclical bias when some input factors are not freely variable, causing their shadow and market prices to differ. We correct this bias in TFP by decomposing it into its latent stochastic trend and cyclical components by employing the Kalman filter. Using the FDIC's annual aggregate data on U.S. insured commercial banks, we report that the stochastic trend has been positive during 1935–1991, with an average annual growth rate of 2.27%, and that it exhibits a decaying time path. We attribute the positive TFP growth to technical change.