Measuring Sustainable Cotton Production Using Total Factor Productivity

Abstract

Continuous cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production was examined using data from Alabama's long-term Old Rotation experiment (c. 1896). Index values were used to examine trends in productivity and sustainability for 95 yr. Treatments studied were those receiving (i) no N fertilizers and no winter legumes for 95 yr, (ii) only winter legumes as a source of N, and (iii) chemical fertilizer N. Three sets of index numbers were calculated from all inputs and outputs involved in the production systems: (i) total factor productivity (TFP), which accounts for an direct production inputs, but which does not consider production externalities; (ii) productivity relative to a base plot; and (iii) total social factor productivity (TSFP), which accounts for all direct production inputs as well as externalities of soil erosion and pesticide use. Viewed from the 95-yr perspective of the Old Rotation experiment, all three treatments fulfill at least one criterion required for a system to be considered sustainable. Output per unit of input is higher in 1991 than in 1896, even when externalities are valued. None of the systems showed a linear trend in output or TFP over the life of the experiment; productivity cycles are present in all three systems, despite a positive overall trend. An average annual rate of TSFP growth of 1.8%/yr was attained- Accounting for erosion and pesticide externalities reduced the annual productivity growth rate by 0.2%/yc The system that has neither an organic nor a chemical source of added N was less productive and less sustainable than the two other systems with a 0.3%/yr TSFP growth rate. The plots using organic and chemical sources of N had similar productivity impacts. Valuing soil erosion and pesticide externalities had only a modest effect on measured productivity. The most dramatic single event to affect the productivity of cotton farming was the introduction of the mechanical cotton picker. The impact of this technology was powerful enough to offset the effect of many other changes in the system.