Abstract
Researchers have established the need for regional as opposed to national studies of tornadoes since activity varies spatially. Also, studies in sparsely populated, rural states outside the traditional high frequency tornado areas are rare. West Virginia provides a rich context for the study of tornadoes, including the potential to detect the effects of climate change on tornado frequency and distribution in a sparsely populated state as well as a potential eastward shift of tornadoes in the United States. Data from the US Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC’s) tornado database from 1950–2017 recorded 141 tornado reports for WV. Comparing the first half of the record (1950–1983) to the second half (1984–2017), we find significant increases in tornado counts for the months of June and September, declines for the months of April and August, and a shift of tornado reports to later in afternoon. The month of May was curiously low in tornado counts over the entire length of record. To probe the reason for these observed changes, we mapped several variables from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Dataset on a 2.5° by 2.5° latitude-longitude grid over North America, comparing the two time periods. Reanalysis variables provided some insights vis-à-vis the changes in tornado counts for some of the noteworthy months. Clustering of tornadoes is evident within the state, indicative of spatial patterns in the underlying tornado climatology. The mean center of tornado locations shifted north and east.
Published Version
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