Tornado damage in forest ecosystems of the United States

Abstract

Changing climate dynamics have been forecasted worldwide, including in some regions of the United States (U.S.), leading to potentially significant damage to forest ecosystems. To better understand how natural disturbances may affect forests, we analyzed trends in frequency and area of tornado damage for 1995–2021, damage area within forested ecosystems, and assessed data limitations for the contiguous U.S. for 1950–2021. We found that recent, more uniform data collection periods from 1995-present showed stable to declining numbers of tornadoes nationally. However, our results indicate that the southeastern U.S. has experienced significant increases in total and forest area damaged by tornadoes as compared to other regions over the last three decades. The northeastern U.S. also showed a slight increase in damage, while all other regions showed no significant trends. This indicates a potential shift in the geographic location of tornadic events from the Midwest towards the Southeast, which has a larger area of commercial timberland. Additionally, forest area damage has increased 36 %, as estimated by total tornado track area, over the most recent 20 years. Increased tornado damage in forests suggests increased financial risks for the wood products sector and landowners in recent decades, and we recommend that large, institutional landowners monitor and assess natural disturbances (occurrence, extent, severity, and financial consequences). These findings highlight the need to improve risk assessment methodologies and support research that informs both pre- and post-disturbance forest management practices.