Topical 3D modelling and simulation of air dispersion hazards as a new paradigm to support emergency preparedness and response

Abstract

Releases into the atmosphere resulting from accidents or malicious activities may be extremely diverse in nature and have harmful consequences for human health and the environment. Successfully managing such releases is a matter of the utmost importance for security services and governmental authorities. For some decades, Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D) models embedded in Decision-Support Systems (DSS) have been operated in order to simulate the space and time distribution of hazardous materials and to assess their health impact on the population and on first responders in cases of emergency. Unfortunately, the AT&D models in DSS generally oversimplify the local or regional environment and are compromised by insufficient space and time resolution close to the source of the release. Thus, we have developed a DSS based on 3D multi-scale weather forecast and Lagrangian AT&D models in the frame of a project called “EMERGENCIES”. As an emblematic example, we have performed dispersion simulations of fictitious noxious releases from the inside or outside of public buildings both at micro-scale in a very large domain encompassing the city of Paris and its suburbs, and at meso-scale beyond this domain. Furthermore, results have been produced in a time lapse consistent with emergency management thanks to large, yet affordable computational resources. Providing emergency response actors with such operational, accurate and reliable results may be extremely advantageous for both preparedness and response to emergencies. Ultimately, state-of-the-science AT&D models offer a sound validated new paradigm to support decision-making by security services and their authorities facing contingent Chemical, Biological, Radioactive, Nuclear or Explosive (CBRN-E) releases into the air.