Abstract
A prediction model for topic propagation of bulletin board system based on the grey model is proposed. This model traces the periodic variation of the topic propagation to reduce the noise of interactions, and extracts smooth segments from its period of propagation. The grey theory is applied to predict the topic propagation in a smooth cycle. It is shown that, the accuracy of this model is satisfactory to the topic propagation of bulletin board system, and it can provide a basis for predicting the trend of this community networks.
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