Abstract
Slope deformation prediction has important significance for slope prevention and control. Based on historical time series, the trend of displacement variation can be predicted in advance, and according to the development trend, risk warnings and treatment measures are proposed. The use of the mathematical model to predict slope deformation has been proved to be feasible by many studies; therefore, the choice of the predictive model and the practicability of the model are crucial issues in the prediction of slope deformation, and the mathematical prediction model used should be less complicated considering the practicality of the model. In view of slope deformation prediction, a fractional-order calculus gray model based on the coupling of gray theory and the fractional derivative method is proposed, which takes a deep foundation pit slope in Chongqing, Southwest China, as the study object. The fractional-order gray model is compared with the traditional gray models; therefore, the results show that the accuracy of slope deformation prediction based on the gray coupling model of cumulative displacement and fractional calculus is significantly higher than that of the conventional gray model, and its error is in the acceptable range compared with the actual monitoring data, which can meet the needs of engineering application. Compared with the traditional gray theory method, the gray coupling model of fractional-order calculus only increases the fractional derivative order, which is verified to be feasible, and can be used as a reference method for slope deformation prediction. It has a certain theoretical basis and a good application prospect in slope deformation prediction.
Highlights
Slope disaster prediction and forecasting is the frontier problem and research focus of current environmental geology research and is one of the critical aspects for people to understand the natural environment [1, 2], with regard to geological balance of the surface, which has wide practical significance and important theoretical value
Deformation is the macroscopic and visible physical information in the process of slope evolution, and predicting slope deformation can better understand the evolution behavior of slope. erefore, scholars have done a lot of research on slope deformation prediction and model
It is more popular to apply the mathematical model for nonlinear comprehensive prediction combined with the existing data, which can further interpret the internal mechanism of slope instability, further predict the trend of deformation and failure, and provide relevant measures and treatment methods for engineering
Summary
Slope disaster prediction and forecasting is the frontier problem and research focus of current environmental geology research and is one of the critical aspects for people to understand the natural environment [1, 2], with regard to geological balance of the surface, which has wide practical significance and important theoretical value. It is more popular to apply the mathematical model for nonlinear comprehensive prediction combined with the existing data, which can further interpret the internal mechanism of slope instability, further predict the trend of deformation and failure, and provide relevant measures and treatment methods for engineering. Using mathematical models and intelligent evaluation methods to accurately predict slope deformation and at the same time integrating the mechanical theory interpretation with the deformation prediction has important theoretical significance and practical engineering value. The fractional-order calculus method is used to derive the fractional calculus gray prediction model based on the time series of deformation data. In order to verify its rationality, taking the monitoring data of a deep foundation pit in Chongqing, Southwest China, as the engineering case example, the slope deformation prediction calculation and analysis are carried out to provide technical support for the slope deformation treatment and maintenance
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