Útlitið fyri áhaldandi vøkstri í fólkatali Føroya

Abstract

This paper discusses the demographic development on the Faroe Islands. Using the socalled comparative and flow diagrams developped by Kurt Witthauer, the crude birth rates and crude death rates are shown in fig. I for the Faroes and some neighbour countries around 1780, making visible the very special situation for the Faroes in this period. Both the crudebirth rate and the death rate are much lower than in the other countries. The flow diagram, fig. 2, with birth rate as ordinate and death rate as abscissa, shows the evolution in the rates for the period 1770—1780 to 1961—65, with the single years 1969 and 1970 to give an impression of the trend today when »the pill« is more commonly used. The natural increase in population can be read on the oblique lines. As shown on the figure it is estimated that the fertility rate will fall with Ve from 23 °/ooto 19 or 18 °/oo, and the death rate will increase slowly to about 8 °/oo, due to the aging of the population. These trends together are estimated to give a natural increase of about 10 °/oo, shown on the figure with a dotted area in the lower, right side of the diagram. On fig. 4 the migrations are taken in consideration. Abscissa = net migrations which can be positive or nagative. Ordinate = natural increase. Oblique lines = actual increase. The migrations are calculated indirectly, using the known figures for the total population in different years (the censuses) and the registrated numbers of births and deaths. Usually there is a net migration out from the Faroes. Only two periods in the 19 th century are showing net immigration. As the peak is reached in the crude birth rate, the net emigration is simultaneously increasing. Following the economic crisis in thefirst half of the 1950-ie5, there is a very serious emigration, but later the figures stabilizes on about 4 °/oo. With the supposed lowering in natural increase, the actual increase in the Faroese population is estimated to be only 8 °/o or maybe lower in the nearest future, (the dotted area). The composistion of the net migration of the net migration stream to Denmark (figures for the total net migration are not available, but 80—85 °/o of the faroese migrations are going to Denmark) are calculated as themean for the period 1961—68, fig. 3. The figure makes the remarkable feature clear that 50 % of this stream is made up of women in the class 15—19 years, and there is a net emigration in all classes except for men in the class 25—29 years, which balances. This distorted composition of the net migration stream results in an ever increasing number of men per 100 women. In earlier periods there was a surplus of women. The proportion balanced in 1921 and 1925, but in 1966 there were 110 men per 100 women.
 The outlook for the future growth of the faroese population is, according to these estimates for the near future, not very brigth. The main causes are the present lowering in the birth rate and the distortion of the composition of the population, caused by the serious surplus emigration of young women.