Tipping the scale: Why utility-scale solar avoids a solar rebound and what it means for U.S. solar policy

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Adoption of residential rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is increasingly widespread. However, empirical evidence shows that households who adopt rooftop PV increase total electricity consumption, a response known as the ‘solar rebound effect’ (SRE). The SRE implies that rooftop PV generation displaces conventional, grid-supplied electricity—still overwhelmingly generated by fossil fuel combustion—on a less than one-for-one basis. This article argues that utility-scale solar avoids a SRE because the SRE emerges as a household’s response to the self-generation of electricity by its rooftop PV system, which changes its electricity consumption incentives in ways that utility-scale solar does not. By avoiding a SRE, utility-scale solar allows the carbon reduction potential of increased PV generation capacity to be more fully realized, which has important implications for U.S. solar policy.