Abstract
Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0–2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE (P = 0.9; range of 1825 [P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872–1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930–1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era.
Highlights
Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability
While modern rates of relative sea-level (RSL) emerge at all sites by the mid-20th century due to the large magnitude common global signal (1.4 ± 0.2 mm/yr by the end of the 20th century), the spatial variability in the time of emergence (ToE) among sites is driven by asynchronous regional centennial-timescale trends unrelated to long-term linear rates of change associated with glacial isostatic adjustment (Fig. 3, Supplementary Fig. 5)
Regional and local sea-level changes with an increase on the U.S Atlantic coast since ~1400 CE and a decrease in Canada and Europe since ~1800 CE drive the spatial pattern in ToE, suggesting multiple processes underlie North Atlantic RSL variability over the Common Era
Summary
Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. There is agreement that rates of sea-level rise globally and in many locations exceed Common Era background rates by the late 19th to early 20th century[8,9,10], global and regional estimates differ and the spatial variability in the timing among locations is unclear.
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