Timing is everything: A technology transition framework for regulatory and market readiness levels

Abstract

Meeting technology-based policy goals without sufficient lead time may present several technology, regulatory and market-based challenges due to the speed of technological adoption in existing and emerging markets. Installing incremental amounts of technologies, e.g., cleaner fossil, renewable or transformative energy technologies throughout the coming decades, may prove to be a more attainable goal than a radical and immediate change the year before a policy goal is set to be in place. This notion of steady installation growth over acute installations of technology to meet policy goals is the core topic of discussion for this research. This research operationalizes this notion by developing the theoretical underpinnings of regulatory and market acceptance delays by building upon the common Technology Readiness Level (TRL) framework and offers two new additions to the research community. The Regulatory Readiness Level (RRL) and Market Readiness Level (MRL) frameworks were developed. These components, collectively called the Technology, Regulatory and Market (TRM) readiness level framework allow one to build new constraints into existing Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). A system dynamics model was developed to illustrate the TRM framework. The framework helps identify the factors, and specifically the rate at which we must support technology development, necessary to meet our desired technical and policy goals in the coming decades.