Timing and associated climate change of a 2 °C global warming

Abstract

ABSTRACTTowards a better insight into the timing and climate change associated with a 2 °C global warming above pre‐industrial levels in the 21st century, here we perform an analysis of all pertinent experiments within the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Considering equally all available CMIP5 models, the probability of crossing the 2 °C target before the year 2100 is 26, 86, and 100% for the Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 (RCP2.6), 4.5 (RCP4.5), and 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios, respectively, with the median years of 2054 for RCP4.5 and 2042 for RCP8.5. A 2 °C global warming would not be felt equally round the globe: stronger warming occurs over land than over the ocean, and the strongest warming occurs in the Arctic. Almost all temperature changes are larger than natural internal variability. Global average signal‐to‐noise ratios (S/N) of annual and seasonal temperature changes are in the range 3.2–5.0, and the largest values occur at low latitudes due to the lower background variability. Precipitation tends to increase at high latitudes but decrease in the subtropics, while all changes are smaller than natural internal variability except in parts of the high northern latitudes. The S/N of annual (seasonal) precipitation changes averages only 0.2 (no more than 0.1) for the globe.