Time-series economic effect of developing MAGLEV among metropolitan areas in Japan considering urbanization economies

Abstract

New high-speed rail lines are currently planned or under construction in many countries around the world. In Japan, construction of the Chuo Shinkansen using the MAGLEV technology which connects the three major metropolitan areas (Tokyo, Nagoya and Osaka) started in 2016. In this paper, we proposed an econometric model to analyze time-series effects of developing high-speed rail on regional economy considering migration between regions, change in the number of trips between regions and urbanization economies due to development of the rail. We also developed an empirical model for four regions along the Chuo Shinkansen and analyzed the time-series impacts of developing the line on population and gross regional product of the four regions. As a result, it is indicated that while the Chuo Shinkansen has a positive effect on the population and gross regional product of the three major metropolitan areas, in Yamanashi Prefecture, it has a negative effect on population but a large positive one on gross regional product.