Time-series characteristics of drought and flood in spring soybean growing season and its effect on soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

Under the background of climate change, the spatial-temporal distribution of precipita-tion in Heilongjiang Province is uneven, and drought and flood frequently change, which is not conducive to the safety of soybean production for the province. To clarify the influence mechanism of drought and flood in the growing season on soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province, we analyzed the time-series characteristics of drought and flood in soybean growing season and its effect on soybean yield in different growth stages, based on data of daily precipitation from 60 meteorological stations during 1961 to 2018 and soybean yield in the same period, with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) as the drought and flood evaluation index. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2018, the influence range of drought in soybean growing season in Heilongjiang Province showed a weak decreasing trend, while that of flood showed a weak increasing trend. In the same period, the intensity of both drought and flood showed a weak increasing trend, with slightly stronger role of flood intensity. The probability of the co-occurrence of drought and flood accounted for 60.3%. The soybean growing season in Heilongjiang Province may become wetter. From 2012 to 2018, the influence range and occurrence intensity of flood were significantly higher than that of drought, six years of the whole or regional flood occurred, in which five years were moderate degrees. The effects of drought and flood on soybean yield differed across regions in soybean growing season. The effect of flood on soybean yield was significantly stronger than that of drought in the Northwest, North and East, and were similar in the Midland, while in the Southwest, South and Southeast, the effect of drought was much greater than that of flood. The fluctuation of soybean yield was closely related to drought and flood during bloom-seed-filling period. Among them, in the Northwest, Southwest, Midland, South and Southeast of Heilongjiang, soybean yield would reach a high level when there was a little bit more precipitation, but the moderate and above-moderate levels of flood would cause the reduction. In the North, the fluctuation of soybean yield was mainly affected by flood, while in the East, the effects of drought and flood on soybean yield were similar.