Time Trend Analysis of Atmospheric POPs Concentrations in the Great Lakes Region Since 1990

Abstract

Using a multiple linear regression model of the concentrations of several persistent organic pollutants in the atmospheric vapor and particle phases and in precipitation, we have analyzed a data set of about 700,000 values to determine the rate at which these concentrations are decreasing. These concentrations were measured as part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network (IADN), which has operated several sites near the North American Great Lakes since 1991. The pollutants measured include 83 polychlorinated biphenyl congeners, 17 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and 24 organochlorine pesticides. In the approach used here, for each of the three phases, the concentrations of a specific chemical at all the sites were combined and fitted with a regression incorporating the sine and cosine of the Julian Day (relative to 1 January 1990 and with a periodicity of one year) and the population living and working within a 25-km radius of the sampling site. Partial residuals were then calculated for each datum, all of the residuals for the three phases were combined, and an overall halving time was calculated from them. This relatively simple approach indicated that the concentrations of PCBs in air around the Great Lakes are decreasing with an overall halving time of 17 ± 2 years, which is slow for a substance that was banned about 35 years ago. Phenanthrene, chrysene, and endosulfan showed halving times on the order of 10 years. The concentrations of several organochlorine pesticides were decreasing more rapidly; for example α- and γ-HCH (lindane) have halving times of about 3.5 years.