Time to Cure and Predictive Factors Among Patients with Multi-Drug Resistance Tuberculosis in Puntland, Somalia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis, also known as MDR-TB, is caused by bacteria that are resistant to the most effective first-line anti-tuberculosis medications, which are rifampicin and isoniazid. MDR-TB is an increasing global concern, and its spread has varying cure times for patients affected. Thus, this study was intended to investigate the median time to cure and identify predictive factors for patients with MDR-TB in Puntland, Somalia. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was carried out at the MDR-TB center in Galkayo, Puntland, Somalia between the years of July 2017 and August 2023. The study utilized data that were collected from the inquiry form and monitoring cards of a randomly selected sample of 130 patients over a 6-year period. The data were entered into Epi-Data version 4.3 and analyzed using R Programming version 4.4.0. Non-parametric methods were used to estimate the median time to cure for patients with MDR-TB. Semi-parametric and parametric models were employed to determine predictive factors that influence the time to cure for MDR-TB patients. The Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) of different survival models were compared to select the model that offers the best fit. Results: Out of the total of MDR-TB patients, 109(83.85%) were cured and 21(16.15%) were censored during the follow-up period. The median time to cure from MDR-TB was found to be 619 days which is approximately 20 months. In accordance with the AIC and BIC, the Log-logistic accelerated failure time model was the best fit for the data as compared to the other AFT models. The result of the Log-logistic AFT model revealed that age, sex, disease site, and comorbidities significantly affect the time to cure for MDR-TB. According to this study, older age with MDR-TB patients, male MDR-TB patients, MDR-TB patients with comorbid conditions, and extrapulmonary MDR-TB patients had a longer time to cure than their reference categories. Conclusion: Based on the findings of the study, the median time to cure for patients with MDR-TB in Puntland was found to be 20 months. Sex, disease site, comorbidities and age were predictive factors of time to cure from MDR-TB.