Time series modeling of spring failures of KAMAZ trucks during operation in Yakutia

Abstract

The purpose of this article is mathematical modeling of the time series of failures of leaf springs of KAMAZ trucks during operation in Yakutia to determine the relationship between the rhythmological features of the series and the operating conditions in the permafrost zone. Significant harmonics of the expansion of the time series of spring failures into a Fourier series were revealed. Harmonics with periods of 12 and 6 months are associated with the seasonal nature of operating conditions. The additive model, consisting of the average monthly value of failures and five significant harmonics, approximates the dynamics of spring failures quite well. The maxima of the additive function of spring failures occur in March—April and August—September, that is, they correspond to periods of deterioration of road conditions in Yakutia. The role of road conditions as a more important destructive factor affecting the operability of KAMAZ truck springs in the permafrost zone compared to the factor of low temperatures was also shown. The novelty of this work is determined by the contribution to the solution of methodological issues of studying the operability of vehicle elements, taking into consideration seasonal operational factors and ranking their role in the occurrence of failures. The resulting models will make it possible to make short-term forecasts of the dynamics of spring failures based on the choice of significant harmonics of the Fourier decomposition. Keywords KAMAZ truck, mathematical modeling, leaf spring, operability, periodicity, low climatic temperatures, road profile