Abstract
The evaporation duct could significantly affect the work status of maritime microwave communication systems in the South China Sea. Therefore, the exact forecasting of the evaporation duct is vital for the normal operation of the systems. This study presents a stochastic modeling approach to predict the future trends of the evaporation duct over the South China Sea. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model has been used for modeling the monthly evaporation duct height estimated from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset released by the National Centers for Environment Prediction. The long-term evaporation duct height data were collected for a period of 10 years from 2008 to 2017. The analysis of correlation function reveals the existence of seasonality in the time series. Therefore, a seasonal ARIMA model with the form as ARIMA (0,0,1) × (0,1,2)12 is proposed by fitting the monthly data optimally. The fitted model is further used to forecast the evaporation duct variation for the year 2018 at 95% level of confidence, and high-accuracy results are obtained. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of the proposed stochastic modeling technique to predict the future variations of the evaporation duct over South China Sea.
Highlights
High-speed trans-horizon wireless marine communication has always been a challenge due to the contradiction between the transmission distance and channel capacity [1,2].The wirless communication via evaporation duct provides a possible way to satisfy the need for long distance and high capacity at the same time [3]
The seasonality of the wind and SST patterns is charged for the seasonal variability in the Evaporation duct height (EDH) over the South China Sea (SCS)
The seasonality in the time series can be adpoted in the statistical model to determine the future trends of EDH
Summary
High-speed trans-horizon wireless marine communication has always been a challenge due to the contradiction between the transmission distance and channel capacity [1,2]. As a special atmospheric layer resulting from the sea surface evaporation, the evaporation duct could trap radio waves within the evaporation duct layer This would enable the evaporation duct to act as a wireless communication channel. Evaporation duct height (EDH), the difference in height between the top of trapping layer and the sea surface, is the most widely-used parameter to quantify the trapping ability. This parameter is used to estimate the path loss when designing the wireless communication capacity. The spatio-temporal variations of EDH over South China Sea (SCS) have been extensively evaluated using evaporation duct model and reanalysis data.
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