Selection Optimal Method of Evaporation Duct Model Based on Sensitivity Analysis

Abstract

Abstract The evaporation duct is an abnormal refractive phenomenon with wide distribution and frequency occurrence at the boundary between the atmosphere and the ocean, which directly affects electromagnetic wave propagation. In recent years, the use of meteorological and hydrological data to predict the evaporation duct height has become an emerging and promising approach. There are some evaporation duct models that have been proposed based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. However, each model adopts different stability functions and roughness length parameterization methods, so the prediction accuracies are different under different environmental conditions. To improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct under different environmental conditions, a model selection optimization method (MSOM) of the evaporation duct model is proposed based on sensitivity analysis. According to the sensitivity of each model to input parameters analyzed by the sensor observation accuracy, curve graph, and Sobol sensitivity, the model input parameters are divided into several intervals. Then the optimization model is selected in different intervals. The model was established using numerical simulation data from local areas in the South China Sea, and its accuracy was verified by the observational data from the offshore observation platform located in the South China Sea. The results show that the MSOM can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct height. Under unstable conditions, the maximum relative error is reduced by 7.1%, and under stable conditions, the relative error is reduced by 10.7%. Significance Statement The evaporation duct height has a significant effect on marine radar or wireless apparatus applications. To obtain the evaporation duct height, there are some evaporation duct models that have been proposed. However, different evaporation duct models are applicable to different meteorological and hydrological environments. A single model cannot achieve accurate evaporation duct height predictions in all environments. We propose a model selection optimization method of the evaporation duct model based on sensitivity analysis. This method can dynamically select the optimal model according to different meteorological and hydrological environment, and improve the prediction accuracy of the evaporation duct height. Under unstable conditions, the maximum relative error is reduced by 7.1%, and under stable conditions, the relative error is reduced by 10.7%.