Research on a Multimodel Fusion Diagnosis Method for Evaporation Ducts in the East China Sea

Abstract

Evaporation ducts are abnormal states of the atmosphere in the air–sea boundary layer that directly affect the propagation trajectory of electromagnetic (EM) waves. Therefore, an accurate diagnosis of the evaporation duct height (EDH) is important for studying the propagation trajectory of EM waves in evaporation ducts. Most evaporation duct models (EDMs) based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory are empirical methods. Different EDMs have different levels of environmental adaptability. Evaporation duct diagnosis methods based on machine learning methods only consider the mathematical relationship between data and do not explore the physical mechanism of evaporation ducts. To solve the above problems, this study observed the meteorological and hydrological parameters of the five layers of the low-altitude atmosphere in the East China Sea on board the research vessel Xiangyanghong 18 in April 2021 and obtained the atmospheric refractivity profile. An evaporation duct multimodel fusion diagnosis method (MMF) based on a library for support vector machines (LIBSVM) is proposed. First, based on the observed meteorological and hydrological data, the differences between the EDH diagnosis results of different EDMs and MMF were analyzed. When ASTD ≥ 0, the average errors of the diagnostic results of BYC, NPS, NWA, NRL, LKB, and MMF are 2.57 m, 2.92 m, 2.67 m, 3.27 m, 2.57 m, and 0.24 m, respectively. When ASTD < 0, the average errors are 2.95 m, 2.94 m, 2.98 m, 2.99 m, 2.97 m, and 0.41 m, respectively. Then, the EM wave path loss accuracy analysis was performed on the EDH diagnosis results of the NPS model and the MMF. When ASTD ≥ 0, the average path loss errors of the NPS model and MMF are 5.44 dB and 2.74 dB, respectively. When ASTD < 0, the average errors are 5.21 dB and 3.46 dB, respectively. The results show that the MMF is suitable for EDH diagnosis, and the diagnosis accuracy is higher than other models.