Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Water Quality Parameters along Yamuna River in Delhi

Abstract

The extent of pollution in areas near industrial activities and Yamuna River has increased tremendously and to determine the overall water quality status in these locations is utmost important. This paper presents a comprehensive study on assessing the water quality and gain insights into the overall water quality status in the vicinity of industries and along the Yamuna River in Delhi. To achieve this, water samples were collected from Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) for the last eight years (2013-2021) and was converted into a machine-readable format to facilitate further analysis. These samples were analysed for several water quality parameters, including pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), nutrient levels, heavy metals, and other relevant pollutants. By understanding these factors, a deeper understanding of the pollution sources and their impact on water quality is gained. Time series methods are applied to forecast future trends and values of the water quality parameters. This allows for predicting potential changes in water quality over time. A remarkable accuracy of 93.6% is attained in predicting water quality values up to the present time. The analysis reveals that water quality in the NCR region falls below acceptable standards. However, there has been a marginal enhancement in the water quality at Khajori Paltoon (Location L3) post-COVID. To achieve a more significant improvement in water quality, it is imperative to implement new policies.