Abstract
In recent years, China’s residential electricity consumption has continued to grow at high speed, and its contribution to the growth of the total electricity consumption has become more prominent. The peak-to-valley gap is also gradually increasing, which reduces the efficiency of electricity—an increasingly important terminal energy form. The resident travel chain is a major influencing factor of residents’ electricity consumption, and it is of great significance to dig deeper into the mechanism of its influence on residents’ electricity consumption behavior. In this paper, the time distribution model of household power load in summer in Beijing is constructed by comprehensively considering the difference of travel chain, electricity consumption behavior, and load level. The Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced for the simulation of the model. According to the results, both household type and temperature have a significant impact on the peak load, while the difference in the choice of mode of transportations does not. It is also found that the household appliance with the most potential for regulation is the air conditioning, followed by the water heater, which where regulation and optimization should be mainly carried out.
Highlights
With China’s social and economic development and the improvement of people’s living standards, residential electricity consumption (REC) has become an important part of the electricity consumption of the entire society, accounting for 14%, and it has shown a trend of rapid growth, exceeding the growth rate of the whole social electricity consumption in the same period
With the elimination and control of high energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises in recent years, residential electricity consumption accounted for a large proportion of the total regional electricity consumption, reaching more than 22% in 2018, far exceeding the national level during the same period, and its growth rate is very considerable
The mathematical basis of the Monte Carlo simulation method is the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem in probability theory
Summary
With China’s social and economic development and the improvement of people’s living standards, residential electricity consumption (REC) has become an important part of the electricity consumption of the entire society, accounting for 14%, and it has shown a trend of rapid growth, exceeding the growth rate of the whole social electricity consumption in the same period. As a representative of megacities, Beijing has a relatively small residential electricity consumption unit, but the overall level of total electricity consumption is relatively high. With the elimination and control of high energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises in recent years, residential electricity consumption accounted for a large proportion of the total regional electricity consumption, reaching more than 22% in 2018, far exceeding the national level during the same period, and its growth rate is very considerable. The average growth rate in the five- year period from 2014 to 2018 reached more than 10%. In 2018, the single-year growth rate even exceeded 18%. It can be seen that the level of electricity consumption and growth rate of Beijing residents are at a relatively high level
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