Do different sizes of urban population matter differently to CO2 emission in different regions? Evidence from electricity consumption behavior of urban residents in China

Abstract

Abstract Population size is closely related to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but whether urban population size at different stages of population urbanization matters differently to CO2 emissions in regions at different development levels has not been paid much attention to. CO2 emissions induced by urban residential electricity consumption (REC) 1 has been a main component of urban indirect CO2 emissions, and it is jointly controlled by the electricity demand resulting from urban population size and the electricity intensity influenced by residents' consumption behavior in different socioeconomic environments. In this paper, through panel threshold regression, by controlling residents' behavior factors, the impact of urban population size on REC at the different stages of population urbanization was investigated in the eastern, central and western regions of mainland China respectively during 2000–2016. Results show that, urban population size always played a dominant role on REC, and there were significant regional heterogeneity and staged heterogeneity simultaneously in such impact. Overall, such impact always decreases first and then increases (U-shaped pattern) no matter as urban population grows or as regional development level increases. According to the different stages of urban population growth and their impacts on REC in each region, there are different reasonable ranges of urban population size for low-carbon development in the three regions respectively. The control variables of residents' electricity consumption behavior only contributed a minor effect on REC. Among them, technological progress and residential density had a minor inhibitory effect on REC, while average income and education level played a negligible promotion role on REC. Accordingly, policy implications for controlling reasonable size of urban population are provided for each region, as well as the measures to improve residents’ electricity-saving behavior from the socioeconomic perspective.