Abstract
Abstract Much of international behavior is linked spatially and temporally. Yet, analyses of interstate interactions generally either assume independence among units or resort to technical solutions to dependence that “throw away” relevant information. We detail a more informative and satisfying approach to modeling spatial dependence from extra-dyadic linkages in alliance ties and geographical proximity as specific pathways of conflict contagion. Beyond deterrence, the purpose of alliances is to draw other parties into dyadic contests, but most existing research on conflict onset generally only considers alliance ties within an individual dyad or external intervention in the same dispute. We develop new measures on third- and fourth-party alliance ties, demonstrating direct and indirect spatial effects of alliances on conflict onset. Similarly, ongoing contests can spread geographically, but dyads in some locations are much more at risk for conflict onset than others. We provide a new theory of geographic “inbetweenness” in conflict and show that dyads involving specific locations and ties to the ongoing conflict are much more likely to see dispute onset, even accounting for other purely dyadic factors. Beyond the intrinsic interest in the impacts of extra-dyadic position and alliances on conflict, our spatial approach can be applied more broadly to other extra-dyadic ties.
Highlights
The dyad remains the most common unit of analysis for interaction between states and is helpful for analyzing outcomes of interaction or combinations of the actors’ characteristics
The insight that strategic behavior will be conditioned by expectations about, or reactions to, the behavior of other actors leads directly to the conclusion that most interesting phenomena in international relations must be minimally dyadic, and raises question about purely dyadic research designs
We present an actual example from the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) and Correlates of War (COW) alliance data to clarify the coding and relevance to dispute onsets
Summary
Much of international behavior is linked spatially and temporally. Yet, analyses of interstate interactions generally either assume independence among units or resort to technical solutions to dependence that “throw away” relevant information. We detail a more informative and satisfying approach to modeling spatial dependence from extra-dyadic linkages in alliance ties and geographical proximity as specific pathways of conflict contagion. Más allá de la disuasión, el propósito de las alianzas es atraer a otras partes a contiendas diádicas, pero la mayoría de las investigaciones que existen sobre el inicio de los conflictos, generalmente, solo consideran los lazos de alianza dentro de una díada individual o la intervención externa en la misma disputa. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch is Regius Professor of Political Science at the University of Essex and Research Associate at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
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