Ticari Açıklık, İstihdam ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

In this study, the relationship between trade openness and macro variables such as inflation and unemployment in 2005Q1-2018Q1 periods has been examined. The variables used for analysis have been obtained from TurkStat and CBRT official site. Before the analysis is conducted, standard unit root tests are applied to the series. VAR model is established to explain the relationship between variables by doing Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test. Effect-response and variance parsing results of VAR model are interpreted. The results, indicates that there is an inverse relationship between trade openness and inflation and It indicates a positive relationship between trade openness and unemployment. The findings of cointegration test showed that there was a long run cointegration relationship between the series. According to the results obtained from the Causality test, there is a bi-directional causality relationship between trade openness and unemployment. There isn't a causality relationship between inflation and trade openness.