Abstract
Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. However, the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. Here, we analyze magnitudes and rates of temperature change and extinction rates of marine fossils through the past 450 million years (Myr). The results show that both the rate and magnitude of temperature change are significantly positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals. Major mass extinctions in the Phanerozoic can be linked to thresholds in climate change (warming or cooling) that equate to magnitudes >5.2 °C and rates >10 °C/Myr. The significant relationship between temperature change and extinction still exists when we exclude the five largest mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. Our findings predict that a temperature increase of 5.2 °C above the pre-industrial level at present rates of increase would likely result in mass extinction comparable to that of the major Phanerozoic events, even without other, non-climatic anthropogenic impacts.
Highlights
Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity
Five large-magnitude mass extinctions have occurred during the past 450 million years (Myr)[1], where the estimated extinction of marine animals for each event was over 75% at the species level[2]
To quantify extinction within each of the 45 time intervals, we use two rate estimators: gap-filler (GF) extinction rate and three-timer (3 T) extinction rate, which are calculated using data from the Paleobiology Database. We find that both the rate and magnitude of climate change are positively correlated with the extinction rate of marine animals
Summary
Climate change is a critical factor affecting biodiversity. the quantitative relationship between temperature change and extinction is unclear. All Big Five extinction events occur within intervals associated with both high magnitudes and high rates of climate change (Fig. 1). The slopes of extinction on rate and magnitude of temperature change during warming are steeper than those during cooling (Fig. 2b, d).
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