Abstract
THE PURPOSE of this study is to investigate certain distortions of the college grading process, distortions which have in commonone element: they are all considered to be matters of luck. The at tempt is to isolate certain kinds of luck and then measure very roughly the extent to which they ex plain variance in grade-point average. The term luck, or its synonyms, is seldom de fined precisely; called chance, it is the subject of whole volumes of probability theory, but it still is used colloquially more than scientifically. Here it refers to classes of events or more generally, fac tors, which are 1) either unknown or unknowable, or 2) either uncontrolled or uncontrollable. Light ning is the usual example, for it is both uncontrol lable and unpredictable, for most practical pur poses. The outcome of battle between evenly matched armies is often attributed to chance be cause the relevant factors are so multitudinous, many unrecognized, many out of control, that the issue is unpredictable, and some trivial matter (e. g., the horseshoe nail) may appear to tip the bal ance.
Published Version
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