Three empirical investigations on ASEAN banks

Abstract

This thesis investigates three comprehensive research issues in the context of five selected Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) banking markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) during the period 1998-2010. This study is motivated by the extensive restructuring efforts that took place in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) which has shaped the banking behaviour in ASEAN countries to enable them to sustain their financial systems’ stability. As a result of the crisis, banks adopted several strategies in response to various structural and policy changes and, therefore, there were vast effects on banks’ behaviour following the AFC and pre and post the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period. The first empirical study of this thesis investigates the impact of market power on credit risk, revenue diversification and bank stability. The findings suggest that bank market power is positively associated with credit risk and revenue diversification. Nevertheless, these associations diminished during the GFC, implying that banks with greater market power were able to better manage their non-performing loans during the crisis period. Bank stability, however, is not associated with market power. Instead, it is found to be a negative function of state-ownership, asset composition and banking freedom. Overall, even though ASEAN banks with greater market power have higher credit risk, they are more diversified thus leaving their overall bank risk unaffected. The second empirical study examines the association between net interest margin, revenue diversification and risk-adjusted profitability. The findings suggest a two-way association between net interest margin and revenue diversification. The results denote a significant inverse relationship in the period 1998-2002, indicating subsidisation between interest and fee-generating business in the aftermath of the crisis. For the latter part of the sample (2003-2010), a positive association has been reported for net interest margin and revenue diversification implying that non-interest income does not necessarily increase with the detriment of the net interest margin. The findings reveal that diversification benefits exist for the same sub-sample period i.e. after the Basel II regulations came into force around 2003. The results also suggest that in the aftermath of both crises, risk adjusted profitability declined as banks had limited scope to diversify their sources of revenue. Overall, ASEAN banks have evolved over time, moving from the worsening risk-return trade-off to the beginnings of the benefits of diversification. The third empirical study investigates the influence of the cost of deposits, market power and the business cycle on the bank capital buffer determination. The findings imply that the capital buffer is positively associated with the cost of deposits, bank market power and the business cycle. The findings indicate that the higher the cost of deposits and the greater their market power, banks tend to hold a greater capital buffer. Furthermore, the capital buffer can vary pro-cyclically with the business cycle suggesting that banks can increase their capital buffers by expanding through various lending during economic upturns which will provide opportunities for banks to make use of this excess capital during recessions. Further, the findings suggest that the banking sector can contribute to the performance of the economy if they hold sufficient buffers and retain a healthy flow of credit when the economy is in crisis. This analysis provides some insight into ASEAN banks’ response to Basel III, which indicates that these banks will find it much harder to comply with the new regulations. This study contributes to the literature through providing evidence of the ASEAN banks’ diverse responses in the aftermath of the AFC and pre- and post-GFC with regard to the research issues. In addition, this thesis adds to the limited, but fast growing, literature on bank market power by using an improved version of the Lerner index in the form of a Funding adjusted Lerner index. Regarding the methodology, unlike other studies, this thesis extends the literature by addressing endogeneity by employing the GMM method for estimation. In addition, this thesis is includes a broader set of bank-specific, country-specific and industry-specific determinants together to address the research issues. Apart from the academic contributions, this thesis offers several implications for bankers, shareholders and regulators. The regional focus of the analysis provides useful insights for ASEAN banks for future policy formulation involving bank market power, credit risk, revenue diversification, bank stability, net interest margin, cost of deposits and the business cycle, given the restructured banking system in the region.