Thinking beyond the closure assumption: Designing surveys for estimating biological truth with occupancy models

Abstract

Abstract Occupancy models estimate distributions of imperfectly detected species, but violations of the closure assumption can bias results. However, researchers working with mobile animals may find it impossible to eliminate such violations. Here, we tested the hypothesis that occupancy models fit to realistic sampling data can generate unbiased occupancy estimates for an itinerant Wood Thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) population. In 2013 and 2014, we tracked movements of 41 breeding Wood Thrush males. We modelled territory shift probabilities using logistic exposure models and within‐territory movements using continuous‐time stochastic process models. We then constructed an individual‐based model, simulated (1000 iterations) spatiotemporal locations for individuals and simulated sampling these populations using 162 different point count protocols with variable spatial (sampling radius and point placement method), and temporal (survey length, between‐survey intervals and number of surveys) characteristics. We compared occupancy estimates with true values of instantaneous, daily and seasonal occupancy from the simulations. We parameterized continuous time stochastic process models based on movements within 34 unique territories and estimated a daily territory shift probability of 0.0099 (95% CI: 0.0060, 0.0152). Simulated data indicated that estimates of occupancy ranged from 0.18 (0.06, 1.00) to 0.80 (0.71, 0.89) depending on protocol characteristics. Occupancy estimates increased with increasing survey radius, survey length and between‐survey interval. Protocols using shorter surveys and between‐survey intervals were good estimators for instantaneous occupancy (low bias and mean‐squared error) but poor estimators for daily and seasonal occupancy; longer surveys and intervals generated unbiased estimators of daily occupancy but underestimated seasonal occupancy. Logistic regression models that ignored imperfect detection outperformed occupancy models for estimating instantaneous occupancy but not daily or seasonal occupancy. For mobile animals, occupancy of sampling sites changes in space and time. Consequently, the spatial and temporal aspects of a sampling protocol have strong, but predictable, effects on occupancy model parameter estimates. Our results demonstrate that how these factors interact is critical for designing surveys that produce occupancy estimates representative of the biological process of interest to a researcher.