Thermic regime and air temperature trends in Sumadija region (Serbia)

Abstract

Subject of this paper is analysis of mean, absolute maximum and absolute minimum air temperatures (on a monthly and annual scale) in order to represent certain climatic characteristics of Šumadija region (Serbia). Data from 10 meteorological stations located in this region were used in the analysis for the period 1961-2010. Based on available data it is concluded that similar climate conditions are met in the whole region and the spatial variations of air temperatures are relatively small. Mean annual air temperatures varied from 11-11.6°С in most of meteorological stations. The only exception is Belgrade where slightly higher mean annual air temperature of 12.3°С was calculated, which along with micro-location influence of this station indicates the presence of urban heat island effect. In order to determine potential air temperature changes in Šumadija region, the trends of the climatic element are examined using Mann-Kendall test and Sens slope estimation. Calculated trends of mean annual air temperatures indicate increase in almost all stations and they are statistically significant on the confidence levels from 95 to 99.9%. Contrary to the trends of mean annual air temperatures, absolute maximum air temperature trends have statistically significant increase only in six stations (at four stations confidence level is 99%, and 95% at one station and 90% at another one). Other four stations do not have statistically significant trends of absolute maximum air temperatures. Absolute minimum air temperatures do not have statistically significant trends.