Thermal variability and incidence of febrile syndrome in a community in northern Peru

Abstract

Background: Temperature is a component that is influenced by seasonal climate changes and by the “El Niño” phenomenon or other phenomena. The response of the growth patterns and microbiological transmission is altered, which can generate an outbreak of infectious diseases. The objective is to determine the association between variation in environmental temperature and the onset of febrile syndrome. Methods & Materials: Active surveillance was carried out in the rural community known as “Miraflores” in Piura, Peru, between September 2015 and February 2016, period used to represent the before and during the “El Niño” phenomenon. Data collectors were previously trained to conduct home visits each week and clinically evaluate the members of each enrolled family. The clinical evaluation was performed in the case of respiratory, abdominal and undifferentiated syndrome. The weekly average of the environmental temperature was estimated with the data of environmental temperature of the city of Piura according to the National Centers of Environmental Information (NOAA). Incidence rates for each syndrome were calculated, Spearman correlation was applied to determine the relationship between incidence rates and climate variability. Results: The average incidence rate of febrile syndrome was 17.13 (CI 95% 14.08 - 20.18). The rate of febrile respiratory syndrome was 13.28 (CI 95% 10.61 - 15.95), the rate of undifferentiated febrile syndrome was 1.98 (CI 95%: 0.97 - 2.99) and the rate of abdominal febrile syndrome was 1.81 CI 95% (1.06 - 2.57). In the Spearman correlation analysis between febrile abdominal syndrome throughout the study period, a significant result was obtained (p = 0.001) with a correlation coefficient (-0.642). Conclusion: The febrile respiratory syndrome had the highest incidence rate, followed by undifferentiated and abdominal, it was found that there was an inverse correlation between febrile abdominal syndrome and temperature.