Thermal tolerance and habitat preferences mediate how freshwater fish body sizes respond to warming

Abstract

Recent studies have linked ecosystem warming to decreased mean body size in aquatic ectotherms but have often relied on experimental approaches. This study explores how climate change modifies adult body sizes in natural communities for five culturally, commercially, and recreationally important freshwater fish species that vary in thermal preferences (lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush), lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis), walleye ( Sander vitreus), yellow perch ( Perca flavescens), and smallmouth bass ( Micropterus dolomieu)). Using data for >170 000 sampling records from >600 lakes spanning the entire province of Ontario, Canada, we employ a spatial analysis technique based on Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation to detect body size changes due to warming lake conditions. With warming conditions, cold-adapted species (lake whitefish) decreased in adult body size, while cool- and warm-adapted species (walleye and smallmouth bass) increased in adult body size. Our study, like others recently conducted in marine and freshwater systems, demonstrates that the responses of fish body sizes to warming are not a unidirectional shift and may be linked to the habitat and thermal preferences of individual fish species.