Thermal response to sequential tropical cyclone passages: Statistic analysis and idealized experiments

Abstract

The cold wake caused by a tropical cyclone (TC) extends for hundreds of kilometers and persists for several weeks, thus influencing the surface response for any subsequent TCs that might pass over it. It is commonly accepted that sea-surface temperature (SST) cooling, as produced by a single TC, occurs primarily through vertical mixing. However, when there are sequential TCs, the earlier TC can dramatically change the thermal structure of the upper ocean, which may influence the subsequent development of a latter-occurring TC (LTC). Therefore, the contribution of horizontal advection and vertical mixing to SST-cooling during the passage of LTCs is of great interest. Using a 19-year-long observational dataset and the heat budget analysis of an idealized numerical simulation, the SST change during the passage of sequential TCs is investigated. The results demonstrate that, on average, the SST cooling caused by the LTC shows an overall decreasing trend with enhanced lingering wakes. Budget analysis of the model simulations suggests that an earlier TC can suppress the vertical mixing induced by an LTC mainly through an alteration of dynamics within the deepened mixed layer and that the contribution of vertical mixing to the SST cooling is weaker due to the intensification of the earlier TC. The weakened vertical mixing dominates the decreased SST cooling induced by an LTC. In contrast, the cold wake generated by an earlier TC can produce more cold water on the right side of the TC’s track, which contributes to stronger horizontal advection upon the arrival of the LTC. In general, the effects of the earlier TC can suppress the sea-surface thermal response to an LTC. If the contribution of the horizontal advection to SST cooling is neglected, the SST cooling induced by an LTC could be reduced by about 40%. As for the response of the sub-surface water to the passage of an LTC, the weakened warm anomaly induced by vertical mixing and the enhanced cooling anomaly caused by the vertical advection explain the reduced tendency for the mixed layer to deepen. As a result, the tendency for the mixed layer depth (MLD) to increase is suppressed during the passage of an LTC. These results highlight the importance of optimally depicting cold wakes in numerical simulations to improve the prediction of the upper ocean’s response to sequential TCs.