Theoretical Method of Prediction of the Optimal Bus Leasing Contract Time which Based on the Transit Agency Targets and Safety on the Traffic Routs

Abstract

Fleet management is one of the key issues for transit agency in terms of increasing reliability, quality and satisfaction of the customers. There are different ways to renew the fleet, such as leasing, short and long terms loans, renting and even full price purchasing. Leasing, as a way to renew bus fleet, is one of the most convenient and popular method nowadays, due to the financial advantages of this method.Duration of bus leasing affects on bus service life, which in turn affects the income from bus and the technical and economical parameters of a fleet agency. Manager need to make a forecast of transportation and economical work, before the sign off a lease contract with a lessor. Detailed and precise forecasts of the technical and economical parameters are the key inputs for decision making affect on the income and operation parameters of the fleet, economical sustainability of the company and costumers satisfaction rate.This paper examines the problem of determining the optimum service life of buses which are purchased through leasing by a transit agency.The proposed procedure method consists of a 3-steps model. First step is choosing several leasing duration and payments per month; Second step is economical calculation for selected cases and determining the most suitable for company. The last step is comparison the calculated forecast with normative parameters.The proposed method can be used as a fleet management tool for any bus transit agency.