The World Economy

Abstract

Our estimates indicate that global output, measured in terms of purchasing power parities, expanded by 5.3 per cent in 2006. This is one of the fastest rates of growth recorded in the last 35 years, when global growth averaged 3.7 per cent per annum. We forecast a further expansion of 5 per cent this year, with the global economy projected to remain strong throughout our forecast horizon to 2013. Prospects for growth in both 2006 and 2007 have improved slightly over the last three months, due to a decline in oil prices, a more favourable outlook for the US and no sign of a significant slowdown in China. While growth at the global and OECD level is expected to moderate this year relative to 2006, we are projecting a modest acceleration in Japan, boosted by a small fiscal stimulus and recent gains in external competitiveness.