Abstract
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology could increase electric vehicle (EV) revenues and grid flexibility. Prior analyses have quantified potential V2G revenues, but each has ignored at least one of four factors that could drive future V2G revenues: future grid changes, large EV numbers, V2G interactions with electricity prices, and V2G operational responses to shifts in electricity prices. Our innovation is the capture of all four factors to quantify net revenues of a fleet of V2G-enabled EVs in California through 2030 by co-simulating optimization models for V2G and power system operations. We find V2G-enabled EVs generate an average of $32-$48 more annual net revenues than smart-charging EVs. Declining electricity prices through 2030 due to decarbonization and V2G participation decreases V2G revenues, and ignoring fleet-wide V2G participation significantly overestimates V2G annual net revenues. Overall, these results indicate V2G revenues could be modest and decrease in the future, underscoring the value of our co-optimization framework.
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