Abstract
Once upon a time there was a proposal to put to the test the relative merits of two systems of bidding at Contract Bridge. The manner of testing was to be a match of 150 rubbers. What could be said of the proposal? Certainly that it involved statistical considerations. It must involve them because, entirely apart from the system of bidding, and entirely apart from differences of ability in the players, the fall of the cards might well throw the match one way or the other within limits. The theory of probability would permit us to calculate that the probability of a division of 150 rubbers evenly between two sides of equal ability, using two systems of equal merit, would be about 1 in 16. It would, therefore, be something rather rare to have the play come out even. That one side or the other should win over the other by not more than two rubbers (including a tie) would have a probability of just under 1 in 5, and that the winning side should have a lead of not more than four rubbers (score 77 to 73 or closer) would have a probability of under 1 in 3. Thus there are better than 2 chances in 3 that, with everything equal, the score would be more uneven than 77 to 73. And so one could go on. There are only about 7 chances in 10 that the score would be as close as 81 to 69. And unhappily a probability of 0.7 is not very sure evidence of anything. This indicates that before one could reasonably eliminate the chance fall of the cards from a judgment on the results one would have to have a decidedly uneven score—possibly as uneven as 87 to 63 or worse.
Published Version
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call