The validation of SSWs forecasts in atmospheric global circulation models

Abstract

While the influence of the troposphere on the stratosphere is well known, recent observational and modeling studies have demonstrated that the stratosphere has an impact on the troposphere as well. The dynamical coupling between stratosphere and troposphere is particularly strong during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. The correct forecasting of the onset and duration of SSW events is therefore important and is a current challenge for weather forecasting centers. As there is a lack of observations in the upper stratosphere with good temporal and spatial coverage, additional techniques may be helpful to constrain SSWs. This is illustrated using volcanic infrasound measurements. The observations are compared with nowcast and forecast models up to 10 days. While a general agreement is found during the summer period, larger discrepancies are found during the equinox and major SSW of January 2013.