The USSR and the Region

Abstract

The year 1984 was an interesting one for Soviet policy in Southeast Asia. There were many similarities to past years. Moscow was seen to be pursuing the same goals it has sought for the last decade and a half and utilizing the same tactics and strategies, the same means, to achieve those ends. The obstacles to the attainment of the objective, the frustrations for Soviet policy, also were similar to the past. Yet, while there were no really new policies, there were new areas of emphasis in the USSR's behaviour, some significant signs of progress and evidence of setbacks, some degree of discouragement coupled with certain reasons for optimism in the Kremlin. It is the purpose of this essay to trace and analyse these aspects ? the old policies and new emphases, the means and ends, and the successes and failures ? of the USSR's foreign policy in Southeast Asia during 1984. The analysis begins with an examination of the major themes in Soviet policy in the region. This includes placing Moscow's behaviour in Southeast Asia in the context of broader Soviet foreign policy and domestic circumstances during the year, assessing what particular goals the Kremlin seeks to achieve by involvement and then evaluating the degree to which the region represents a vital interest in Soviet foreign policy calculations. This discussion of themes in Soviet policy in the region is intended to provide the framework for the substantive parts of the paper which follow. Recognizing the stark division of Southeast Asia into two sub-regions, Indochina dominated by Vietnam on the one hand and the ASEAN states on the other, Soviet policy in these two areas will be treated separately. The record of Soviet behaviour in 1984 will be examined first in Indochina and then in the ASEAN region in the search for important developments and trends, evidence of success or failure, and indications of the likely future thrust of Moscow's policy. Finally, the concluding section of the chapter attempts to evaluate the key factors which explain recent Soviet policies and their results. This evaluation provides the basis for a brief discussion of the likely future trends in Soviet policy in 1985 and beyond and of the variables which are likely to influence the outcome of these new or continuing Soviet efforts.