The use of satellite data for agriculture drought risk quantification in Ukraine

Abstract

This paper focuses on drought risk assessment using satellite data. Methods of the extreme value theory (EVT) are applied for a time series of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites in order to provide drought hazard mapping. A Poisson-GP (generalized Pareto) model is applied for modelling VHI extreme values. The model allows estimation and mapping of return periods of different categories of droughts. An approach to economical risk assessment due to droughts is presented that relies on the following components: damage function assessment, crop yield assessment, and crop area estimation. The advantage of the proposed approach is that it allows quantification of drought hazard through the drought return period, damages, and ultimately drought risk using satellite data. The derived drought hazard map is integrated with high-resolution crop map to provide final estimates of risk. The proposed approach is implemented for quantitative assessment of drought risk for the Kyiv region in Ukraine. The derived map shows that risk is distributed non-uniformly over the region, thus allowing identification of areas with higher risk. Such a map would be of great benefit to both local authorities to take directed actions to reduce the risk and insurance companies operating in agriculture sector.